You can do this in your own living room
You have seen the TV stunt shows where a guy does something very dangerous, like putting a fire out after he pours gasoline on his safety suit and lights himself on fire, and while he is furiously rolling around on the ground, the voice-over announcer says "Do not try this in your own living room!" I think most of us would not think of keeping a can of gasoline in the living room, but the emcee has to say this so that some idiot with 3rd degree burns all over his body does not sue the show.
Well, let me tell you this... you can do your own rating of your team in your own living room. It will not give your 3rd degree burns and it might shed some light on your team's rating in my final post. If you find your rating to be significantly different than what I have posted, then you can send me a message and I might or might not check it out. The funny thing is, it is not the teams in the top ten that usually complain... it is a fan for a team that is down in the middle of the ratings.
I had a Ruskin fan respond to the class five ratings with a put-down and then some facts about all the teams they beat that were rated ahead of them. I took a look and the analysis is below. He was partly right and I have to admit that I probably ignored Ruskin after they started the season 0-6 and 4-11 with a rating in the 115's. They did finish extremely strong, ending at 12-14, winning their district and advancing to lose to Van Horn in a super-sectional. I will admit that I do not calculate every game for every team. About midway through the season, I focus on the top 20 teams or so. If they play a lower-rated team, I put that data into their rating but I won't go back and do the rest of their games. Fact of life, better teams get more attention than lesser teams. But I should have caught Ruskin's district win and realized they had beaten or split home and away games with teams that I had ahead of them in the final ratings.
I recalculated their ratings and reposted, based on the following analysis and YOU CAN DO THIS IN THE COMFORT OF YOUR OWN LIVING ROOM.
Print off your team's schedule from www.MSHSAA.org, and use my alphabetical listing of teams HERE. Write in the opponent's rating for each game on the schedule. Add or subtract the score difference to determine your team's game rating. Add up the game ratings, divided by the number of games, and, presto, you have your team's season rating.
I did that in the table below for Warrensburg, Platte County, Ruskin, and Grandview. I originally had Rusking rated below all four teams. When I first totaled and average these, Ruskin was still below all four, but Ruskin beat Grandview two out of three, including the district title game. You have to give them credit for late-season success and rate them better than Grandview. The only way I could do that was to put the district game into both teams' results multiple times, which is a weighted average vs. a simple average.
When I looked at the weighted ratings, I now have Ruskin better than Grandview and Warrensburg, who Ruskin beat in a sectional game by three. But then, Warrensburg was 19-6 while Ruskin was 12-14, so is the three-point loss enough to push Warrensburg under Ruskin? Not when you look at the rest of the season and so I took a few of the weighted entries out for Ruskin's win over Grandview. It keeps Ruskin ahead of Grandview but a few decimal points behind Warrensburg.
I have always said these are statistical models but when you get teams split home and home games or playoff games, it requires some judgment on ratings. It is especially difficult when one or both of the games are blowouts, with the teams reversing from the previous result.
So, check out the alphabetical listing for all boys HERE and girls teams HERE. Do your homework and send me a polite message. If I haven't moved on to other things, I might consider a minor change. The problem is when fifteen class one teams at the bottom of the ratings want a re-audit, I might decide to put this year in the rearview mirror.
Be my guest and try this in the comfort of your home.
Here is a simple spreadsheet for your D-I-Y Gramps rating certificate....
Step 1: Print the form below and enter your team's season schedule under Opponent
Step 2: Go through the alphabetical listing of team ratings. Add the opponent rating behind their name in the opponent column.
Step 3: Write in the game outcome, ie. 55-45 under outcome.
Step 4: Subtract your opponent's score from your team's total. Write the spread in the Difference column.
Step 5: Add the opponent rating plus the difference under my rating. This is your team's rating for that game. If you lost the game, you are subtracting the score difference from your opponent's rating. If you won, you are adding the points you won by to your opponents' rating.
Step 6: Add up your game ratings and divide by the number of games played. If your team is more than five points different from my post and your team would be in the top 20, if Gramps wasn't napping, drop me a line with your calculation. If you aren't near the top 20, burn the calculation sheet, take a shower and work harder for next year.
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