My Conundrum - Who's really #1? Simple vs. Weighted averages and explaining the top team's ratings - March 21st, 2021

 conundrum

[kəˈnəndrəm]

NOUN

1. a confusing and difficult problem or question.

   "one of the most difficult conundrums for the experts"

   synonyms:

   problem · difficult question · vexed question · difficulty · quandary · dilemma · puzzle · enigma · mystery · poser · facer · stumper · cruncher

I spoke about a conundrum in my last post.  What is so confusing, you ask?  Well, I have six boys and six girl's state champions and who is the best team in the state of Missouri?  That is a difficult or confusing problem or conundrum.

That is conundrum #1.

Conundrum #2 is that how do I rank the top teams in each class?  First of all, I think the state champion in each class needs to have the highest rating.  Their title might be the result of an upset but they still deserve the #1 spot.

It would probably be easier to just post final ratings and leave it at that. lf you do not want an explanation, just come back and look tomorrow for the rankings.

I have been rating Missouri boy's and girl's basketball teams with good (not good, great) accuracy throughout the season but really good teams are eliminated early (ie. Christian Brothers College CBC) by the eventual final four teams.  So, are the final four better than a team like CBC, who lost to Chaminade three times by a total of 15 points, or a Staley that held the top-rated spot in Kansas City all year?  Does a CBC or Staley belong in the top four or five?

My rating model is called a weighted average calculation.  That means that I will put more weight on one game result than others which more reflective of the actual results than a simple average.   I will put more weight on later games as teams mature.   If Kickapoo beats Chaminade by 18 when their rating was six or seven points lower, then you have to add more data from this game to change their ratings to reflect that game result.  If most games are single entries, the Kickapoo-Chaminade result might require ten entries to put Kickapoo ahead of Chaminade.

By the time we arrive at the state championship games, most teams, unless you are the Hartville boys or Incarnate Word girls, have lost four or five games to each other.  Do you put more weight on the 25 point victory over Greenwood or the two-point loss earlier in the year?  Let's see.... Kickapoo beats Chaminade, Liberty, and Cardinal Ritter but loses to Hartville, Chaminade beats De Smet, CBC (3Xs), Cardinal Ritter, and Ft Zumwalt North but loses to Kickapoo and Vashon, Vashon beats Chaminade, Westminster, and Father Tolton but loses to De Smet. Liberty beats FZN and Park Hill but loses to Kickapoo, Staley, and Park Hill.  It is dizzying sometimes to keep track.  Okay, must be Hartville then, they did not lose to any of them, right?  No?  Maybe start over, then?

What if I did start from scratch?  Simple averages for these great teams? Would the State champs be on top?  As the only undefeated team, would Hartville be on top?  

Let's take a look.  I rated the final four from class six, class one winner South Iron, class three champion Hartville, top-rated Greenwood, class five Cardinal Ritter, class four Vashon, and top-rated CBC and re-calculated their strength.   

When you look at the simple season ratings, Vashon is the best team for 2020-2021, followed by Chaminade, Kickapoo Liberty KC, and CBC in class six and South Iron in class one.  Then Staley and Park Hill in the strong KC area. Hartville, Greenville and Ritter follow.  That could be your Missouri All-class top ten or so.

But that cannot be my top ten in that order.  Winning a state championship has to weigh in on rankings and so I cannot use the unweighted, simpler rating calculation.  But it gives me some direction.  I need to weight the Kickapoo win over Chaminade and keep the rest of the order pretty much as the simple came out.

That includes leaving CBC, a team that lost in the district four final to Chaminade as a top three class six team and top five Missouri rated team.  They had the toughest schedule of all teams and lost to just three teams.  South Iron, U City and Chaminade (three times).

So when you see the final boys ratings by class, there has been some extra thought built into the ratings.  It is not just simple math.  It is complex and that's why I had the conundrum.  

  

Thanks for reading.

For other posts, check them out here:

Final Ratings Boys Class Six
Final Ratings Girls Class Six
Final Ratings Boys Class Five
Final Ratings Girls Class Five
Final Ratings Boys Class Four
Final Ratings Girls Class Four
Final Ratings Boys Class Three
Final Ratings Girls Class Three
Final Ratings Boys Class Two
Final Ratings Girls Class Two
Final Ratings Boys Class One
Final Ratings Girls Class One
Final Ratings Boys Alphabetical
Final Ratings Girls, alphabetical
Final Ratings Boys, All Classes Combined
Final Ratings Girls, All classes combined
Who's Really #1?  The Conundrum
D-I-Y, You can do this in your own Living Room