Blursday District predictions revisited

Blursday

What is today, you ask?  Well, I call them all Blursday nowadays.  Until we get through this pandemic, every day is Blursday.  And looking at all these boys and girls basketball scores make it Blursday too.

Since today is Blursday, I took a look at the scores for the first round of districts yesterday.  One of the important aspects of mathematical ratings is to look at how well the model is working, which means that I need to grade myself on how accurate the spreads between competing teams actually are.

I have found that both football and basketball ratings predict at about 80% in the early rounds.  As the playoffs continue, the teams are more evenly matched and the accuracy goes down to 65 to 75%.

How did I do yesterday?  Well, right at 80%.  Part of the misses are with the model itself and the other part is that these are just kids and, if you have or have had a teenager, they are at times volatile and unpredictable.  So I will take 80% any day of the week.  

I will have boys and girls top 20 ratings up on www.810varsity.com/news  this Wednesday.  If you want to check out my district ratings and state predictions, look below:

Class one Boys

Class One Girls 

Class-two-boys Girls 

Class Two and Three 

Boys Class Three

Boys Class Four and Five

Girls Class Four through Six

Boys Class six


Here are my teams, ratings, score, predicted spread and actual spread:




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