Gramps 2020-2021 Missouri Hoops

 I have seen a few comments about the "fluke" win that South Iron Panthers earned over the outstanding CBC basketball team on Saturday.  I did not see it that way in my ratings.  I had CBC at a 142 and South Iron at a solid 136 so the spread was, at most, six points.  There really isn't a home advantage with the covid fan restrictions, although the Panthers endured a two-hour bus ride up to St. Louis from Annapolis.  I am quite sure the bus ride home was a lot shorter after their two-point win. But you have to wonder, how can a town with 387 people and a seven through twelve high school population of 120 students end up with a top basketball program?  How did the Dora team do it the last few years?  It is a story right out of the movie Hoosiers and it involves a heck of a lot of hard work. My mother went to a school like that back in Minnesota.  Mountain Lake Lakers were state champions several times and in the final four or eight at least dozen times.  There was a cultur

 Earlier, I posted a Missouri Boys basketball ratings by the district.  As I mentioned then, it might be a little early for thinking about district tournaments but they are only four weeks off.  The season has gone quickly, but more important, teams have managed through the pandemic and most schedules have been unaffected by quarantines.  It has been a remarkable testament to coaches and athletes that are making sacrifices to stay safe and avoid situations that might infect a player or a team. So, first off, I wanted to show the table below of the average ratings by class with the highest and lowest rating in each class.  Obviously, the largest class (six) has the highest rating.  Classes five and four are fairly comparable and then classes one through three are also at about the same level. I have attached district ratings in two tables.  Classes four through six are listed first and classes one through three are listed below that table.  I have rated teams on games through Friday and

 This started off as a way to vent after a frustrating night.  You may have heard of the drill.  Write it down, burn it and take a shower. I thought last night was going to be a special night and one that I have waited for the entire season.  Eureka was playing at Francis Howell in a battle between David and Goliath.  Luke Laudel, Trace Ruckman, Nate Parker, and a bevy of budding juniors were coming in to challenge the taller, more physical Howell Vikings with nifty guard Preston Fortner, Sam Maddox, and massive 6'10" Sam Thompson, both LHBA teammates of Nate Parker under coach Eric Bain.  Sam and Nate were second stringers in the 4th grade playing behind Nick and John Kramer.  Sam and Nate moved to Eric and he helped them become fairly good ballers.  I have been watching these guys for seven or eight years.  I really looked forward to seeing them play against each other. I hate to be disrespectful to the Howell folks, but it was a big disappointment.  So many of us older fo

 I posted the 545 boys teams over at: Missouri Boys Basketball - All class ratings January 28th, 2021 (gramps2021missourihoops.blogspot.com) Here are the Missouri girls all class ratings.  You can check out the first-ever, Top 20 Missouri Girls by class over at www.810varsity.com.   I want to give a shout-out to my Mizzou grandson, Patrick Parker, who did a lion-share of the mathematics in this girl's ratings.  Thank You, Patrick! If you like these, send Patrick a nice email.  If you don't like them, send me the links to the games you think your team won and I will check them out again.  If you just want to complain, go talk to yourself in the mirror.  Life isn't fair.  Get over it.

 Now that www.810varsity has posted the top 20 Missouri boys basketball teams on his website, I will post the All Class ratings for Missouri.  In the next post, I will post the Missouri Girls All Class ratings. Missouri Girls Basketball - All class ratings January 28, 2021 (gramps2021missourihoops.blogspot.com) So here are the boys, all the nearly 550 plus teams, and I will put up the Girls later.  

 Yesterday, I took to Twitter about the issue of school size rankings with Gateway Sports Venue.  I took umbrage to where schools were placed in the "Large" and "Small" school rankings by both GSV and the Post-Dispatch.  I took another look at it last night and this morning and I moved some schools from Large to Small and vice versa.  Here's why.... The Post-Dispatch defines Large schools as greater than 1000 students.  Fine.  I can live with that definition but I wish they would look at school enrollments when posting their Large School rankings.  For instance, on the Boys side, De Smet has 746 or so students and is a large school.  It is not the only misrepresentation.  The P-D girl's rankings are even more puzzling. On the Girl's side, I have listed my LARGE SCHOOLS with a definition of 750 or more students (that would put De Smet in the large boy's ratings).  I have listed my top Large St. Louis Girls teams on the left and the Post-Dispatch Large

 I had considerable help from my oldest grandson, Patrick Parker, on the Missouri girls basketball ratings and I hope that the model is close to perfect, although these are high school girls so you sometimes don't see the same consistency from game to game as you would in a college ratings.  High boys and girls basketball teams show up most of the time, but every once in a while, you wonder if they came prepared.   Seems like a good coach would have them breathing fire at the start of the game.  I recall my sixth-grade club football coach telling us to flatten someone on the opening kick-off and send a message.  One game, we received the opening kick-off and a kid came flying down with a running start and flattened me.  As the coach had indicated, a message had been sent and it wasn't by me.  Someone forgot to tell him to defend on the opening kick-off so we would have a running start at those hapless blockers. I have gotten some nice feedback on my boy's rating post.  Well

 I have indicated, a number of times, that you won't find more extensive Missouri boys or girls ratings anywhere in the state.  But I also think, and this is not bragging, that you find more exacting and quantitative ratings anywhere. Yesterday, I posted game predictions for the slate of Monday night games, with winners and spreads.  I missed one game, the St. Louis Blue Knights at Herculaneum.  I only had a couple of games to rate the Blue Knights so I will take that one and toss it like salt over the shoulder.  On the other 94% of games, I had the winner and was not that far off the spread.  You can see the results below and, if you still don't believe in these ratings, then I don't know what to tell you. But you didn't click on this link to hear me brag.  You dropped in to see the latest St. Louis area large and small school ratings for every team in the area (and maybe a few more). So here are the ratings and few comments about upcoming games. Large Schools: Key gam

 I see that Hazelwood East is back on the hardcourt for the first time this year.  Last week, both Jennings and Hazelwood Central managed to get their first games of the season in.  Jennings looked like they were in mid-season form, with DeMarion Shanklin lighting it up from all over the court.  They lost down the stretch to Eureka but will play everyone tough the rest of the way.  Central looks to be down a little after losing key starters from last year to transfers and relocation but they have a good group emerging so I expect them to be tough again soon.  Hazelwood East was back on the rise last year so they should be a good squad with a couple of games under their belt.  It's just nice to see the North County teams back in action.  Good luck to all of them. Look for my new top 20 Missouri boys by class ratings over at www.810varsity.com tomorrow.  And, again, thanks Chad Rader, for highlighting those ratings on your excellent website.  I will post all classes, all Missouri sch

 I posted district seedings for classes four through six in the last blog.  Here are my mid-season ratings for classes one through three with possible state champions. First off, the average ratings for classes three, two and one all drop off with school size but there are still several outstanding teams that standout in these classes that can compete with almost every class five or six team in the state.  Hartley, Greenwood, and South Iron come to mind.  Great programs and once in a lifetime talent coming through these small schools. In class three, the toughest district is #9, with Fair Grove and Strafford facing the unenviable task of competing with Hartville.  The winner of that district then has to face off with Greenwood Springfield in what I consider to be the real state championship game.  Greenwood and Hartville will play overtime in that sectional. In class two, districts six and ten are the most competitive but I expect NE Cairo and Lakeland to be in the state championship g

 Is it too early to think about district play-offs?  Probably.  I don't want the season to end that soon as we seem to be successfully navigating the pandemic and keeping most teams on the court. But why not take an early look at district placements?  Maybe some of the coaches will see the rankings and do a slightly better job at seeding teams in that district? Also, who has the most difficult district?  Which class has the best team ratings? Here's a few answers.... Class ratings related highly to school size. Makes sense.  More kids, more talent, more money for good programs.  Class six is the best, class five about 8 points below six, class three and four fairly equal.  Class one at the bottom with an average of 72 or about 40 points lower than the top class six team average.  That's what makes it that much more impressive when you have a South Iron, Greenwood or Hartley with astronomic ratings. And who has the most difficult districts in classes six, five and four? In c

 I am very pleased to get the Missouri Girl's High School ratings up to speed after a somewhat rocky start last year.  In my haste to get out mathematically-based ratings, I published Girl's ratings in mid-January of 2020 without a full analysis of every team in the state.  Capturing only a small sampling of teams resulted in "half-assed" ratings with some teams overly rated or under-rated by the author.   Putting out ratings requires something of thick skin because everyone is passionate about their home team.  It does not matter whether the team is in the top 10 or bottom 100, fans will vent about their team beating someone that is rated higher than theirs.  Hopefully, by capturing a majority of the team's game results, we can give an overall rating of a team's performance for the season, and not just one game. Chad Rader, over at www.820varsity.com (@810varsity) is now publishing both Missouri boys and girls ratings for the top 20 in each class.  To get the

 Man, Oh, Man.  I can't keep up.  I saw the Hartville - Greenwood score on Friday night and then saw Greenwood's victory over Park Hill today but I missed the convincing Kickapoo win over Greenwood on Saturday.  Go Figure.  Now I will have the Poo fans on my case.   But I aim to please so here are my revised, revised ratings for all schools, all classes.  For the top 10, you could throw them into a hat and whichever team you drew would be as likely to win that game as my ratings.  They are that close.    Look for my Top 20 Missouri boys ratings by class over at  www.810varsity.com  3 Updated 2:45pm with Greenwood victory over Park Hill, 68-62 Updated 6:30pm with Kickapoo's victory over Greenwood.

 What's with MaxPreps Missouri high school ratings system.  They do a pathetic job of rating teams in the state.  I do not know how they manage to mess these up so badly?  I have asked but not received any response.  I hate to even post their ratings except to show how ridiculously bad they are.  In the table below, I have listed the teams, my rating and the MaxPrep rating. Now I have no problem with New Madrid County Central being a good team.  They have beat most of the traditional bootheel powerhouse teams but I would rate them around 38th in my rankings, not first.   Going down the list, we find Christian Ministries Academy in Billings MO at 23 with big wins over Riverview Bible, Mountain Grove Christian and Joplin Home School (sic).   And then there is Overland Christian from Overland, KANSAS listed at number 35 in the Missouri boys ratings.   At #39, Lighthouse Prep Academy of Jefferson City fits right in with a 32 rating, which would be about the 543rd team on my Missouri bo

 It has been a real rollercoaster ride this past year;  ...with the pandemic,  ...with the mostly peaceful Black Lives Matter demonstrations after George Floyd's unjust and needless death,  ...with the monumental election with the first woman and person of color in the role of vice president. Actually, the past four years have been a rollercoaster ride for many of us and, especially for people of color, possibly, disheartening to see and hear the vitriolic ramblings of a sick, selfish narcissist and the rise of his white supremacist following.  One political party actually had a Voter Fraud playbook that they unsuccessfully employed to try to disenfranchise black voters, putting hurdles in the way of voting.   But in spite of the attempt to put black voters down, people of color turned this election around.  The blacks of South Carolina came out in large numbers to vote for Joe Biden in their presidential primary.  Once "Sleepy" Joe picked Kamala Harris, a woman of Jamai

 I sorted my Missouri Boys and Girls combined ratings by class below.  The lower classes don't have the team depth but they definitely produce some great players.

 Here's the alphabetical list of top Missouri boys and girls high school basketball programs.   The ranked programs are listed under: Who's the best? Missouri's Top Boys and Girls Basketball programs ranked (gramps2021missourihoops.blogspot.com)

  Last year I posted a list of the best-combined boys and girls basketball programs in Missouri.  I thought I would put that ranking out now.  I am rating all boys and girls teams in Missouri in this blog and over at @810varsity or www.810varsity.com. And I know that often, the boys and girls are quite separate but this will give you an idea of which schools are investing in their programs through good grassroots feeder teams and summer clinics.   I have ranked the teams here.  If you want to see the list in alphabetical order, go to: Missouri's top boys and girls basketball programs - Alphabetical listing (gramps2021missourihoops.blogspot.com)

 Many of you know, I have been posting Missouri Boys basketball ratings for about three years.  At the behest of Rob Porter and several others, I decided to pick up the Missouri Girls last winter.  The first few attempts at ratings had some large gaps and inconsistencies and I received some pushback on how I rated some teams.  Over time, I am starting to get a better track record on Girls' teams and the ratings are tightening up.  Are they perfect?  No.  There are still a number of small class teams that do not have their entire schedule entered in the ratings.  It takes a ton of time to rate 500 girls teams with 10 plus games under their belt. Given the amount of time needed, I hired a highly qualified assistant.  Our oldest grandson, Patrick Parker, is a junior in Marketing and Statistics at Mizzou and has graciously stepped in to help with entering girls box score results and put a big dent in the backlog of games I was missing. So the top 30 teams in each of the Missouri classe

 Here's the Missouri Boys All class All School ratings.  You can find the girls at Missouri Girls High School basketball ratings - All Classes, All Schools January 12th, 2021 (gramps2021missourihoops.blogspot.com) Check out my top 25 boys class one through six at www.810varsity.com

 I know.  I know.  I already posted a boys St. Louis area ratings earlier this week but, as Bob Dylan sang, "These times, they are a-changin' " and so I thought I would repost Large and Small school ratings. Yesterday, I posted a prediction on a De Smet school tweet that Chaminade would win the game by eleven.  I watched the game and it was a  back and forth battle of two great teams with De Smet within three or four with about a minute left.  The contest was in doubt but then several key baskets and free throws allowed Chaminade fans to breathe a little easier.  It would have been an eleven point win, had not one of the 'Nade players taken a break-away pass in for a resounding dunk at the buzzer.  He should have pulled it back out.  The Spartans will remember that, next time around when Chaminade plays at De Smet on January 19th.  Besides, I had the spread prediction right and they screwed it up.  LOL.   Remember to put the CBC games with De Smet (Jan. 22nd, Feb 2nd)

 We are finally catching up on Gramps Girl's high school ratings for Missouri and the St. Louis area.  When I say we, I mean my eldest grandson, Mizzou junior, Patrick Parker, who is studying marketing with a minor in statistics, over in Columbia.  Trying to keep up with over 1100 Missouri boys and girls basketball teams and between 50 and 150 games per day has buried me in data.  To do a good job rating teams mathematically, the model is only as good as the data you enter.  Garbage in, garbage out.  Incomplete game results make the model about as good as an opinion poll.  So Patrick has been ably helping to bring the spreadsheet up to snuff.  Thank You! Now, as I look at the Post-Dispatch and Gateway Sports Venue writer's polls, I have a question..... What constitutes a Large and a Small school?  And if, by the Post-Dispatch definition, a Large school has more than 1000 students, then why is St. Joseph Academy, with 511 students, in the Large class ratings?  Someone, please ex

 I was glad to see the calendar flip from December to January.  At my age, every new year gets me thinking more and more about mortality, but not this year.  2020 was very forgettable and I am fully embracing 2021.  Things are changing and for the good.  Civility, decency, and normality appear to be right around the corner.  Maybe even just two weeks away.  Well, maybe not normality but civility and decency are on the upswing.  Normality might be six or nine months off.  While we hunker down for the pandemic, social distancing, and crossing the street to avoid neighbors while taking our walks, I think we all need hugs and when we finally can do that, we may be giving total strangers hugs, just because we can. Last night was a strange night in many ways.  First off, a number of upsets raised my eyebrows.  Highly ranked De Smet, favored by 20 points, lost to a good, but not great, Whitfield team by four.  In another minor surprise, a very good St. Dominic's squad beat an outstanding

 You won't find all 540 boys basketball teams in a ranking, let alone rated by strength.   Kudos to Cardinal Ritter on the great victory over a game South Iron Panthers tonight in Annapolis, Missouri.  Moving on up. Let the Hot Stove discussions begin. Take a look.

  Every once in a lifetime, a team comes along that every coach dreams about but only a few are lucky to actually coach.  For South Iron, that year has come and they have a heck of a team that should go unchallenged in class one.  The Panthers are so good that they have set up a challenging schedule of class five and six teams in the St. Louis area to improve their team even more.  They went to Vashon and played a heck of a game for three quarters before succumbing to the Wolverine's intense full-court pressure.  They now face an imposing Cardinal Ritter team tonight, in the Panther's Annapolis home gym, that is ranked #1 in class five.  This should be another nail biter with a close finish. Can't wait to see how these two great teams perform. I am teaming up with  www.810Varsity.com  on a top 20 post every week.  Girls will be bi-weekly.  Chad Rader has a great website over in Kansas City with some great in-depth stuff on Kansas and Missouri basketball.  You should check i