"State Championship Game" predictions and other stuff - March 5, 2021

 For a couple of classes, it is "State Championship Game" night.  I know, you are probably thinking, "Wait, the State championships are weeks away?"  But for Class three Hartville and Greenwood and Class six CBC and Chaminade, their games tonight are the real state title games.

Many may want to disagree and argue that their teams are equally as good as these four teams and that may be true.  Some other class three-team could end up being state champion.   I suppose Christian OFallon or Monroe City could end up being state champ but those two teams, the #3 and #4 teams in my rankings also face off tonight.  As I pointed out in my blog on changing how the tournament is seeded, the best teams are NOT in the finals with the current MSHSAA geographical setup.

In class six, I have Chaminade #1 and CBC #3 in my state ranks.  #2 Liberty Kansas City is in the opposite bracket from these two district 4 finalists so it is possible that the best two teams in class six could end up in the real state championship.  But why are two of the top teams in the same district?  Seems like teams should be seeded so that they could face off in the quarter- or semi-finals.  I guess we just keep asking WHY until someone in MSHSAA wakes up and studies a seeded state tournament.

These games will be extremely close.  In fact, my prediction percentage is starting to drop from a stratospheric upper 80% range to a more realistic 70%.  Wouldn't you like to get 70% of your NCAA bracket right?  I certainly would, but the fact of the matter is that the further we go in the bracket, the lower the percentage is going to be.  Hopefully, I will still be above 60% by the end.  Better than a 50-50 coin flip anyway.

If you want to know how close your game will be tonight, you can refer to my Handy Dandy alphabetical ratings for boys and girls.

How did I do last night?  Well, for the Boy's predictions, I had a 69% success rate for the night and 79% correct for the districts and sectional games so far.

The Girl's predictions left me at 72% for the night and 81% for the post-season.  

Here are my picks from last night.  I have listed the matchup, previously posted ratings with the predicted spread, game score, and actual spread.  Misses are highlighted in red.





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