Redesigning MSHSAA districts to get the best teams in the final four - A first draft proposal

 I saw Gateway Sports Venue, among others offering up proposals on how to make state playoffs more equitable.  I thought I would weigh in on how to do that with statistics.

Improv comedy is based upon the notion of "Yes, AND".  It means you build on the last idea with another thought.  Not a "But".  A "Yes, And!"  Here's my build on some ideas already thrown out.

The current districts are aligned by locality and that means really good teams like Chaminade and CBC end up playing off in a district final instead of a state championship game.  It happens in all four corners of the state at different times but the best teams do not play each other in the semi- or final state games.  The finals are sometimes anti-climatic because the best games were weeks before.   Some districts are loaded and others are soft.  It is just not fair.  Look at the current class six districts one through eight and you can see that district four has four teams in my class six top 15.  District five is loaded with Pattonville, SLUH and Hazelwood Central.  Why can we not seed these eight districts like it was a big tournament?  Look below the current class six districts...


I have used my statistical ratings to rank the 36 teams in districts one through eight.  MSHSAA could use the same type of statistical analysis to generate team ratings.  Take the top eight teams and put them in different districts.  Take the next eight and seed them in the second seed, reversing the order of district so the lowest-rated second seed is in the first district.  Do the same with three, four, and five seeds (only four teams).  Put the fifth team in the top four rated districts and have a play-in game with seed four and five.

If you do not like the eight districts, you can split into four regions with eighteen teams.  The point is to make sure your top four teams don't play each other until you get the quarter-finals.
 
Below the team seeds table is a proposed district play-off for the eight eastern districts.


I have averaged the seed rank and team ratings for each of the new districts and they are fairly balanced.  I have also moved Chaminade to district one and CBC to district five so that they would not meet in a sectional or super-sectional game.  

I like this better than MSHSAA's current districts.

Do You?




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