In God we Trust, All Others bring data - All Missouri Boys team ratings February 24th, 2021

 If you haven't figured it out yet, I like data.  I like posting fact-based ratings rather than someone's opinion.  When I was managing a food research and development center, my motto was "In God we trust, all others bring data".  I didn't want to know what you thought, I wanted to know what you had empirically and scientifically deduced.

My basketball ratings are basically for the season performance of a team, not a one-game happening.  So, just because you blew somebody out, and you performed so-so against common opponents, the model takes your average spread and not just that game.  If the team you beat is playing better opponents and winning, they might still be rated higher than you.

This is the case with the Vashon loss to De Smet last night.  While I applaud the Spartans win, Vashon is still one of the top three teams in the state, although I have Chaminade slightly ahead of the Wolverines right now.  The Wolves will bounce back.  

There is a nice article in the Post Dispatch by Ben Vessa.  De Smet makes big plays in fourth quarter, ends Vashon's 19-game win streak | Boys Basketball | stltoday.com  

The 48-41 loss is deceiving.  The game was tied at 35 with 2:45 left and Vashon star, Nick Kern at the line for a second free throw on a shooting foul.  He missed, Brian Taylor of De Smet drains a three, Kern misses a three, Gassama makes a three, and all of a sudden, Vashon is down six.  Even with 0:45 seconds left, it was 42-29 De Smet and 44-41 with 27 seconds and a Vashon offensive throw-in.  Nick Kern drove the lane, faked Gassama off the floor, and went up for a shot.  Gassama came down, blocked the shot, and sent Kern to the floor.  Instead of a two-shot foul, the officials let them play on and Vashon fouled.  De Smet hit the throws and the final was an upset seven-point loss for Vashon.

I watched most of the first half and didn't like the flow of the game.  De Smet put up a 2-3 zone and Vashon struggled with threes, going 3-19 for the game.  A zone defense might be the only way to beat the Wolverines but I doubt it will work again.  I am sure Vashon will be working on driving the zone to break it down, rather than taking threes.  They have the athletes and quickness to penetrate and dish for easy buckets so I doubt they will be putting up 20 threes the next time they are faced with it.

To be frank, I am a purist.  I see coaches like Austin Kirby at Eureka or Brian Karvinen at CPA and they are firm believers in man-to-man.  They might use an occasional 1-3-1 or 2-3 zone to change up the defense and fluster the offense but they don't rely on zones.  To me, playing a zone tells me that a team can't play man-to-man or just doesn't want to work hard on both ends of the floor.  I think De Smet threw the zone out there for the entire game because they saw a weakness in outside shooting, but I find zone games to be super boring.  Teams have 60 to 90-second possessions and the scores end up in the low forties.  I really prefer the pick and rolls and up and down screens and high-level intensity of man-to-man games.  Maybe we need a shot clock.  Just my humble opinion.  Play a zone when the situation promotes your chance of winning but not the whole darn season.  The players won't make many college teams with a man-to-man defensive skill set in high school.

Don't count Vashon out because they lost their first St. Louis game in three years.  They might not lose another the rest of the season.

Here are my all Missouri boys ratings.  You can find the top 20 by class over at News (810varsity.com)

Girls all Missouri ratings are at All Missouri Girls Basketball Ratings - February 24th, 2021 (gramps2021missourihoops.blogspot.com)