Corrected March 14th
I had the Pembroke Hill -Richmond score reversed. Thanks to the observant reader for pointing that out to me. I think I took the score off a Tweet that had it reversed.
It was a good night for Gramps last night. While I have talked about my prediction percentage going down as the tournament progresses, I was on a roll last night with 18 of 20 right, or 90%! Both of my misses were in class five boys where Lutheran South continued their hot post-season playoff run and Bolivar "upset" Nevada. I really did not expect Lutheran South to get by a very strong North County team, but the former LHBA super subs, Jonathan Prange and Jack Lawson, and Company built a strong third-quarter lead and held on against a hard-charging North County squad.
Here's where I am at on boys and girls predictions... I didn't do as well on the girl's side, but I will address that tomorrow after today's round of girl's games.
I am actually astounded that the model predictions are this good. I have a feeling that the very close semi and final games will knock the percentages down a hair but I have to feel good about the accuracy of the rating model after predicting 420 games of boys and girls action.
In the Boy's class two, I missed the semi-matchup with Salisbury and North Andrew but got the champion, Campbell. Congrats to Campbell on their first-ever championship.
In Boy's class one, South Iron was right on the 34 point spread and I expect that they will polish off a solid Mound City by 24 tonight. The South Iron Pantherettes lost to Leeton last night so there will be no dual celebration in Annapolis but Hats Off to the Lady Panthers on a fine season.
In Boy's class three, my picks of Hartville and Monroe City both won but tonight will be all Hartville for a magical undefeated season for the Eagles. Can you imagine how great a game it would be between the soon-to-be 31-0 Hartville Eagles and any one of class one, four, five, or six champions?
In the Boy's class four quarterfinals, I had all four games correctly picked, even down to the spread, although Westminster beat Father Tolton by more than I predicted. Expect Vashon to polish off Blair Oaks and face the upstart Westminster gang in the championship. Vashon should "strut" through both games by 20 to 25 points. Of course, they cannot just show up but I know Tony Irons will have them ready for a full effort.
Class Five Boy's quarterfinals had two misses for me that I mentioned above. This is Cardinal Ritter's tournament to win of lose. To me, the De Smet game last night was the real championship. The Bolivar - Lutheran South game will be a close one but I do not expect Van Horn or their championship game opponents to keep up with the intense and fast-paced Ritter squad.
Class six quarterfinals went as I expected, and while I think Chaminade has the inside track to another championship, any of the four finalists could be class six champs. I am picking Liberty KC to edge out the hard-charging Fort Zumwalt North team but Coach Uffmann has the Panthers playing at a high level and it may be hard to stop KJ Lee. An all-St. Louis final with Zumwalt and Chaminade and the two bigs, Lee and Turnball for FZN, and Chaminade's Reed, would be a great final but I think Liberty might have an edge over the Panthers.
That's all for today. Girl's predictions will be reviewed after today's slate of games.
Enjoy!
Pembroke Hill is out in class 4...it’s Westminster / Barstow
ReplyDeleteThanks, Rich, I corrected the error. I think someone posted the wrong score or I had my wires crossed. Westminster is still favored. Thanks for pointing out my wayward ways.
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