More District predictions for Missouri Boys and Girls Basketball - March 3, 2021

 I have posted results of my district predictions each of the last three days and have been hitting 85 to 90% accuracy on the winner of each district game.  I have said previously, based upon both basketball and football predictions, that, as the season playoffs proceed, my accuracy will drop to the mid-seventies by the semi-finals or finals.  The teams are more evenly matched and the outcomes can often go either way.  But, all in all, my methodology is better than a 50-50 coin flip. 

Guessing would even be worse.  Without solid data and hours and hours of statistical modeling each day, guessing would be like bringing a knife to a gunfight.  Guessing is foolish.  Guessing might actually result in predictions that are lower than a 50-50 coin flip.  

I have a lot of respect for some sports groups out there that do a great job of videography and create fantastic highlight reels of exciting local games, but when they start putting spreads up without any data to back them, they just look foolish.  Unless, of course, you are peeking at Gramps ratings.  But that is cheating.  That is like bringing a knife to a gunfight by having a pistol in your pocket.  LOL, It might just be better to highlight the hard data manipulation I am doing four or five hours a day, post it and give me credit like Bill Gunn has done over at MOSports or Chad Rader at 810varsity.

Sometimes, I do not like being right.  I posted in a Tweet that Francis Howell would win by 15, maybe more, not the 4.5 point spread that the sports group threw up in the air.  I had homeys on both teams... guys that played at Larry Hughes with my grandson.  I did not want to see either team lose, but I knew from math analysis that Francis Howell was peaking and that they could stop Howell Central if they stopped their top scorer, Myles Estrada, the top scorer on LHBA the past three years.  Howell won by 22 but hats off to Coach Brian Cissel and his over-achieving Spartans for a great finish and unexpected winning season.

Sometimes, I don't mind missing a score.  The Roosevelt Roughriders have been avid supporters of my blog and tweets but I had Bayless winning by eleven or so.  I had a gut feeling that the Roughriders might pull out an upset but I don't go on feelings very often.  I stick to past ratings and, while I missed on their score, I am glad that I missed and wish them the best for future games.

Otherwise, how did Gramps do last night?  Not too bad.  On the Girl's side, the success rate dropped a little to 76%.  Roosevelt was my only miss for Boy's games, which gave me a prediction rate of 95% but of course, that is going to start tailing off, as my Girls predictions.  Just give it some time.  Believe me, it will happen as I have done this for three years.  I come armed (with data) and ready for a gunfight.  Here is a summary of my predictions so far for Boy's and Girl's games...



Here are my predictions from last night, with previously posted ratings, predicted spread, actual score, and actual spread.





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