March Goats - Predictions dive as competition heats up - March 6, 2021

 I think I have said this about half-a-dozen times.... my prediction percentage is going to drop and I will go from genius to goat as the playoffs progress.

But it is not about me.  The ratings are fun to argue back and forth.  The real focus is on the exciting playoff games and the real Goats.... the players that are stepping up to flip the ratings upside down.

The games last night were about as exciting as they come.  I talked about the "state" championships that were being played;  Chaminade vs. CBC in class six and Hartville vs. Greenwood in class three.  Neither game disappointed.  Remember last night's games because they may have been the most exciting of the playoffs.  

I do not want to insult the actual MSHSAA state championship games but I suspect that neither real championship will take on the excitement of Damien Mayo's half-court buzzer-beater to put #1 ranked Chaminade into the playoffs and send an extremely talented #3 ranked CBC home.  Or the frenzy of the last minute of Hartville's 36-33 victory over Aminu Mohammed and a special Greenwood Springfield squad.  I doubt if either class six or class three state finals will have that much drama.

There are plenty of accounts and videos about the exciting games last night so I will not even try to attempt to add any fluff here.  I do have an interesting (well I hope you find it interesting) story about the upcoming David vs. Goliath game on Tuesday between upstart Roosevelt and the powerhouse Vashon squad right here.

Now I have to get back to recalculating on ratings.  Look for new ratings at 810varsity or right here in a few days.

How am I doing on predictions?  Not bad at 76% for boys to 81% for girls but these numbers are going to just keep going down as the competition gets tighter, as we observed last night.


Here were my ratings, predicted spreads, actual scores, and spreads for last night's boy's and girl's games....  63% correct for boys and 73% for girls.  The games I missed on were teams with close ratings.  IF only I could just take those out of the percentages.....

Enjoy the madness of March basketball



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