Humble Pie and Checking the model February 26th revised

 Updated 6pm Feb 26th

This morning, before heading down to Caruthersville for our second covid shot, I hastily pull boys scores off the MSHSAA site.  If I am going to keep the rating model robust, I need to check my work.  I have said that a good model should predict 70% or better.  I would like to hit 80% but then, there are a lot of things that we like, that we do not get.  As the playoffs progress, teams with closer ratings are harder to predict and the percentage drops slightly.

How am I doing?  For those of you who like to noodle numbers, I have documented my results below.

Well, in last night's MSHSAA games, I predicted the winner right at nearly70% but I had not included any Post Dispatch games.  I wish it was higher but, then again, these are not professional athletes.  These are 15 to 17-year-old kids and performing to the same level every game would be nice but it is not realistic.  So I will take 70% and I will tweak the ratings.

After we returned home, I calculated the 21 games that I did not see on the MSHSAA scoreboard.  The result?  20 out of 21 correct on spread.  Only the MICDS-Priory game was wrong and I heard that two starters sat for MICDS and they played guys that had not gotten much playing time.  Add the 21 games with the 49 from the morning....  54 out of 70 correct or 77%.  

Here are last night's results with the predicted spread, actual spread, and whether I was correct or incorrect on the outcome.  Sometimes my breakfast is Humble Pie.  I'd say that I can put the Humble Pie back in the freezer for a few days.

Time	Event	Score	Visitor	Home	Spread	Spread
5:30 PM	Seckman-55 at Normandy-67 - Final	67-55	107	114	7	12
5:45 PM	Northwest Cedar Hill-29 at Clayton-53 - Final	53-29	94	96	1	24
6:00 PM	Oakville-44 at Whitfield-47 - Final	47-44	115	119	4	3
6:00 PM	Kingston-52 at Arcadia Valley-64 - Final	64-52	89	93	4	12
6:00 PM	Parkway South-60 at Parkway Central-74 - Final	74-60	92	100	8	14
6:00 PM	Southern Boone-60 at Owensville-53 - Final	60-53	108	104	4	7
6:00 PM	North Callaway-59 at Wright City-49 - Final	59-49	95	93	1	10
6:00 PM	Confluence-71 at Miller Career-53 - Final	71-53	128	122	7	18
6:00 PM	Francis Howell Central-49 at Fort Zumwalt North-68 - Final	68-49	116	130	14	19
6:00 PM	St. Vincent-57 at Advance-64 - Final	64-57	104	108	4	7
6:00 PM	Fort Zumwalt East-42 at Liberty (Wentzville)-51 - Final	51-42	107	108	1	9
6:00 PM	Timberland-49 at Francis Howell-64 - Final	64-49	103	126	23	15
6:30 PM	MICDS-51 at Priory-59 - Final	59-51	130	119	11	-8
6:30 PM	Pacific-60 at Farmington-91 - Final	91-60	113	119	6	31
6:30 PM	Eureka-56 at Fort Zumwalt West-28 - Final	56-28	125	101	23	28
6:30 PM	Parkway North-62 at Fox-46 - Final	62-46	116	96	20	16
7:00 PM	Hazelwood West-50 at Lutheran South-68 - Final	68-50	103	111	9	8
7:00 PM	Parkway West-65 at Mehlville-52 - Final	65-52	118	101	17	13
7:00 PM	Orchard Farm-66 at Warrenton-55 - Final	66-55	98	88	10	11
7:00 PM	St. Charles-39 at Fort Zumwalt South-64 - Final	64-39	104	119	14	25
7:00 PM	Perryville-32 at Ste. Genevieve-63 - Final	63-32	82	105	23	31
			20 of 21	95%	10	15