St Louis Area boys basketball conference ratings 10/24/2020

 

Who plays in the toughest conference in the St. Louis area?  You probably could guess, the Metro Catholic Conference and you would be right.  With CBC, De Smet, Chaminade leading the charge, SLUH and Vianney take their lumps but are also excellent teams.  The Yellow Suburban and the AAA Division I conferences are very good but can’t compete, top to bottom, like the MCC.  Here’s a list of all area conferences, rated by last year’s team averages.  An explanation is below with individual school ratings.

10/25/2020 5pm Note: I understand that Trinity and St. Dominic's switched conferences so AAA conference I is stacked and St. Dom's will play some teams closer to their current rank. Let me know if you have other changes.

 

Enjoy!  Can’t wait for some Hoops.

 

	St. Louis Area Conference Rankings
	Actual 2018-2019	2019-2020	Actual 2019-2020	2020-2021
Conference		Predicted		Predicted
Catholic Metro	116.4	121.4	129.4	131.2
Yellow	116.1	118.7	121.4	121.0
AAA Division I	112.2	116.4	120.8	122.6
Red	108.9	113.8	115.0	113.9
Gateway South	108.5	109.5	111.8	113.0
Gateway Central	105.7	104.3	110.7	111.3
Metro League	101.1	106.4	110.0	111.4
AAA Division II	98.6	100.2	109.6	110.8
Green	102.9	108.1	109.3	111.4
Independent	95.8	89.7	106.4	102.2
Public High	101.3	105.1	104.6	105.3
Gateway North	93.0	92.2	101.8	105.0
Four Rivers	91.5	91.9	98.4	99.7
Blue	94.4	101.8	95.0	98.0
Jefferson County	87.8	88.8	93.5	94.5
South Central AA	85.7	82.0	86.5	87.7
Public High Small	60.3	60.3	74.3	76.3

 

You might wonder how I can rate the strength of each conference? 

For the past three years, I have been computing team ratings using a mathematical model similar to the ratings in USA Today for college football and basketball.  I use head-to-head scores and comparative ratings to develop a power rating for each team.  The difference in two team’s ratings is the approximate spread if the two teams competed.  The methodology has proven valid over those three years, given that you are rating 15 to 18 year old boys in a game that has it’s ups and downs.

Below are the team ratings for the 2018-2019 season, my prediction for last year, last year’s final rating and my prediction for this year.  I used last year’s final team rating to determine the conference average.  I have moved teams to new suburban conferences that I am aware of but there may be some other conference movement that I have not become aware of.   I will continue to evaluate teams and their returnees by conference and start boys and girls ratings in December in my blog at:

https://gramps2021missourihoops.blogspot.com/

Here's a look at the boys high school power ratings, sorted by conference for the past two years.  The predicted 2020-2021 rating is the far right column.
					Last rating date
					10/24/2020
Missouri schools 2019-2020 Rankings			2018-2019	2019-2020	Final	Predicted
				Predicted	2019-2020	2020-2021
Conference	Team name		Rating	Rating	Rating	Rating
AAA Division I (from II)		Trinity	128	132	132	126
AAA Division I		Cardinal Ritter	123	130	131	130
AAA Division I		Father Tolton Catholic	116	122	126	130
AAA Division I		St. Mary's	105	116	113	115
AAA Division I		St. Francis Borgia	109	110	118	122
AAA Division I		Conference Averages	116	122	124	125
AAA Division II		Christian (O'Fallon)	108	115	123	125
AAA Division II (from I)		St. Dominic	108	104	116	116
AAA Division II		DuBourg	98	97	104	105
AAA Division II		Duchesne	99	96	104	105
AAA Division II		Lutheran St. Charles	80	89	101	103
AAA Division II		Conference Averages	103	106	113	113
Blue		University City	108	116	118	125
Blue		Clayton	103	105	112	110
Blue		Normandy Collaborative	106	110	111	110
Blue		Fox	88	97	95	94
Blue		Seckman	91	98	89	95
Blue		Affton	90	96	81	90
Blue		Northwest Cedar Hill	79	93	77	80
Blue (Green last year)		McCluer South Berkeley	90	99	77	80
Blue		Conference Averages	94	102	95	98
Catholic Metro		De Smet	121	131	138	142
Catholic Metro		Chaminade	124	129	137	138
Catholic Metro		CBC	127	127	141	136
Catholic Metro		SLUH	104	111	119	122
Catholic Metro		Vianney	106	109	112	118
Catholic Metro		Conference Averages	116	121	129	131
Four Rivers		St. James	105	106	113	115
Four Rivers		Union	103	105	93	90
Four Rivers		Sullivan MO	103	104	112	115
Four Rivers		Pacific	93	103	101	103
Four Rivers		Hermann	96	92	100	100
Four Rivers		St. Clair	90	88	92	95
Four Rivers		Owensville	71	76	93	95
Four Rivers		New Haven	71	75	98	100
Four Rivers		Conference Averages	92	92	98	100
Gateway Central		Fort Zumwalt South	121	116	119	118
Gateway Central		Holt	106	107	111	111
Gateway Central		Fort Zumwalt North	104	107	119	118
Gateway Central		Washington	94	100	110	116
Gateway Central		Liberty Wentzville	106	99	106	105
Gateway Central		Fort Zumwalt East	103	97	99	100
Gateway Central		Conference Averages	106	104	111	111
Gateway North		St. Charles West	106	102	107	110
Gateway North		St. Charles	101	96	107	110
Gateway North		Orchard Farm	88	85	99	100
Gateway North		Warrenton	88	90	98	100
Gateway North		Winfield	82	88	98	105
Gateway North		Conference Averages	93	92	102	105
Gateway South		Francis Howell	132	132	132	135
Gateway South		Fort Zumwalt West	107	109	110	114
Gateway South		Troy Buchanon	110	108	115	115
Gateway South		Francis Howell Central	108	106	113	109
Gateway South		Timberland	101	105	109	110
Gateway South		Francis Howell North	93	97	92	95
Gateway South		Conference Averages	109	110	112	113
Green		Hazelwood East	109	115	116	114
Green		Hazelwood West	105	115	117	120
Green (Red last year)		McCluer North	126	118	116	118
Green		Oakville	94	100	112	116
Green (Blue last year)		Parkway North	97	102	108	120
Green		Rockwood Summit	97	102	106	98
Green		Riverview Gardens	102	105	104	105
Green (Yellow last year)		Ritenour	93	108	95	100
Green		Conference Averages	103	108	109	111
Independent		Whitfield	110	114	109	113
Independent		Confluence	101	100	116	115
Independent		Lift for Life	98	95	118	115
Independent		Valle Catholic	80	80	97	100
Independent		North Technical	91	77	92	95
Independent		St. Louis College Prep	95	72		75
Independent		Conference Averages	96	90	106	102
Jefferson County		Hillsboro MO	109	116	111	110
Jefferson County		Festus	98	93	97	100
Jefferson County		St. Pius X Festus	98	92	106	105
Jefferson County		De Soto	87	90	88	92
Jefferson County		St. Vincent	90	90	105	100
Jefferson County		Windsor Imperial	92	89	99	100
Jefferson County		Herculaneum	67	88	91	92
Jefferson County		Perryville	98	85	75	80
Jefferson County		Grandview (Hillsboro)	69	85	75	80
Jefferson County		Jefferson (Festus)	94	85	99	95
Jefferson County		Crystal City	64	64	83	85
Jefferson County		Conference Averages	88	89	94	94
Metro League		Westminster Christian Academy	108	113	121	125
Metro League		Priory	107	112	114	115
Metro League		MICDS	107	115	120	118
Metro League		Lutheran South	106	104	107	114
Metro League		John Burroughs	104	105	107	110
Metro League		Lutheran North	104	110	122	118
Metro League		Principia	72	86	79	80
Metro League		Conference Averages	101	106	110	111
Public High		Vashon	139	142	146	140
Public High		Soldan	117	119	118	118
Public High		Gateway STEM	108	105	99	105
Public High		Miller Career Academy	97	100	117	115
Public High		Carnahan	85	93	92	94
Public High		Roosevelt	90	92	87	90
Public High		Northwest Academy of Transportation and Law	73	85	73	75
Public High		Conference Averages	101	105	105	105
Public High Small		Metro	72	75	69	70
Public High Small		Sumner	55	71	68	70
Public High Small		McKinley	66	66	100	98
Public High Small		Cleveland NJROTC	66	54	80	82
Public High Small		Collegiate School of Med-Bio Science	41	41	53	60
Public High Small		Gateway Science Academy	62	55	76	78
Public High Small		Conference Averages	60	60	74	76
Red (Green last year)		Mehlville	113	131	138	115
Red		Ladue	115	121	122	118
Red		Pattonville	110	115	114	125
Red (Yellow last year)		Lafayette	112	113	113	115
Red		Parkway Central	117	115	112	108
Red		Lindbergh	104	102	109	110
Red		Parkway West	93	98	107	117
Red (Yellow last year)		Parkway South	107	115	105	103
Red		Conference Averages	109	114	115	114
South Central AA		Maplewood RH	95	101	86	88
South Central AA		Hancock	113	99	110	108
South Central AA		Brentwood	97	90	98	100
South Central AA		Valley Park	91	90	74	72
South Central AA		Bayless	69	63	76	78
South Central AA		Crossroads College Prep	49	49	75	80
South Central AA		Conference Averages	86	82	87	88
Yellow		Hazelwood Central	117	129	127	127
Yellow		Webster Groves	124	118	126	125
Yellow (Red last year)		Eureka	117	116	123	120
Yellow		Jennings	115	122	116	118
Yellow		Marquette	118	110	115	120
Yellow (Red last year)		Kirkwood	106	114	115	119
Yellow (Red last year)		McCluer	116	122	128	118
Yellow		Conference Averages	116	119	121	121